Global oil prices fell on Friday due to growing concerns about demand growth in 2025. This trend could present economic challenges for countries such as Nigeria, which may experience increased financial pressures.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fall 39 cents, or 0.56%, to $68.99 per barrel, while Brent crude futures fall 41 cents, or 0.56%, to $72.47 per barrel. Doubts about the stability of oil demand and the global economic recovery have been the driving forces behind these cuts for the past week.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) revise their global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 downward for the fifth straight month.
- The adjustment reflects ongoing challenges such as weak industrial activity, inflationary pressures, and reduced consumer demand in major oil-consuming economies.
- For Nigeria, these developments may lead to strained budgets, increased energy costs, and greater economic uncertainty.
J.P. Morgan analysts predict the global oil market will move from equilibrium in 2024 to a surplus of about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025.
- This surplus arises from anticipated growth in non-OPEC+ production, estimated at 1.8 million bpd, while OPEC production remains stable.
- Although the surplus may temporarily lower prices and benefit oil importers, it could also reduce revenues for exporters and hinder investment in energy infrastructure and new production.
The Group of Seven (G7) nations consider tightening restrictions on Russian oil exports. Proposed measures include reducing the existing price cap or implementing a total ban. This comes in response to Russia’s use of a “shadow fleet” to evade the $60 per barrel price cap imposed in 2022.
The European Union and the United Kingdom recently introduce additional sanctions to close loopholes and disrupt these covert operations. For Nigeria, as a key oil importer, the shifting dynamics in global oil markets bring both risks and opportunities:
- Declining oil prices may ease domestic energy costs but could lead to reduced export revenues.
- Disruptions in supply chains and geopolitical tensions could further destabilize the economy.
- Policymakers are encouraged to develop strategic energy policies, diversify revenue sources, and prioritize renewable energy investments to safeguard against these challenges.
There are still a lot of unknowns in the oil market as 2025 draws near.
The trajectory of global oil prices will be shaped by the interaction of OPEC+ tactics, rising production from non-OPEC+ countries, geopolitical concerns, and shifting demand patterns. In order to maintain stability in a market that is becoming more and more unpredictable, industry stakeholders must embrace adaptable ways.
