Concerns about a possible Federal Government ban on fuel importation have reignited tensions between the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and independent oil marketers, amid projections that petrol prices could climb to as much as ₦1,500 per litre.
The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s (IPMAN) National Publicity Secretary, Chinedu Ukadike, issued a warning that domestic refiners, such as Dangote, may drastically increase pump prices if gasoline imports were completely stopped. Similar views were expressed by the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), which warned that limiting imports might cause price instability.
However, officials at the Dangote refinery dismissed the claims as speculative, accusing marketers of attempting to maintain the status quo to continue importing what they described as “substandard” fuel.
The controversy follows growing speculation that President Bola Tinubu’s administration may enforce a fuel import ban under the ‘Nigeria First’ policy, which mandates government agencies to prioritise locally produced goods.
Nigeria currently imports around 14.7 million litres of petrol daily, but with the Dangote refinery’s 650,000 barrels per day capacity and additional modular refineries gradually coming onstream, stakeholders anticipate a policy shift favouring domestic refining.
Amid the uncertainty, the Dangote refinery has dragged the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) and other industry stakeholders to court, fuelling further anxiety among importers, depot owners, and marketers.
Ukadike maintained that fuel importation remains essential for price regulation and market competition. He argued that domestic producers, including modular refineries, have not offered lower prices than importers.
“Importation has long sustained the nation. Now that we have Dangote refining products and the NNPC struggling to produce any significant volume, it is still important to allow imports to stabilise domestic fuel prices,” Ukadike said.
He warned that eliminating alternatives could embolden local refiners to engage in profiteering.
“If there are no imports, refiners may start exploiting consumers. Even today, modular refineries sell diesel at prices higher than imported ones. I appeal to Mr President not to ban fuel importation,” he added.
Ukadike also argued that market forces should determine the viability of imports.
“It’s pricing that will end importation. If local fuel becomes cheaper than imported products, importers will naturally exit the market. But if you enforce a ban, Dangote might increase pump prices to ₦1,500, and that’s not in the public interest,” he stated.
He urged the government to support local refiners through tax incentives, low-interest financing, and favourable policies rather than imposing an outright ban.
PETROAN President, Billy Gillis-Harry, shared similar concerns, insisting that the market must remain open as outlined in the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
“There will be price surges if fuel importation is banned. These current price reductions are artificial and not based on verifiable economic factors,” he said.
Gillis-Harry questioned the sustainability of relying solely on one source of petrol supply.
“We’re fluctuating between 46 to 48 million litres daily. Do we currently have the local capacity to sustain that? Even if Dangote can meet it today, for how long?” he queried.
He called for a collaborative approach across the entire value chain, urging logistics companies, storage operators, and refiners to collectively maintain stable supply and pricing.
Responding to the allegations, Dangote refinery officials dismissed the suggestion that it would arbitrarily raise petrol prices to ₦1,500, labelling the claims as a tactic by marketers to justify continued importation.
Speaking anonymously, a senior official stated, “There is no basis for such a price increase. Pricing is influenced by crude oil rates and forex, not speculation. Marketers are pushing these narratives to protect their import interests.”
He stressed that the refinery was established to reduce fuel costs, meet domestic demand, and support exports.
The Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) noted that fuel prices may drop if the crude-for-naira swap deal is sustained. CORAN’s spokesperson, Eche Idoko, projected a reduction in pump prices to below ₦700 if global crude prices decline to $50 per barrel.
Meanwhile, Dr Muda Yusuf, Director of the Centre for Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), downplayed fears of a monopoly by Dangote, asserting that downstream players should focus on operational efficiency.
“There’s no level playing field between importers and domestic refiners, which makes talk of competition tricky,” Yusuf explained.
He advised downstream stakeholders to revive idle NNPC refineries in Warri and Port Harcourt, or develop new facilities to balance market supply and curb overdependence on a single refinery.
“If others want to compete with Dangote, let them build their own refineries. The policy is simple: if we can produce it locally in sufficient quantities, we shouldn’t be importing it,” he added.
As the debate intensifies over a potential fuel import ban, industry stakeholders remain divided on the implications. While marketers warn of potential price hikes, the Dangote refinery maintains that domestic refining will ultimately benefit consumers.
Although the federal government has not yet taken a formal stance, the continuous legal dispute and public discussion indicate that a major policy change may soon be experienced by the energy sector.
