Oil price slips to $66.36 as traders react to President Trump’s surprise 50‑day ultimatum to Russia, easing immediate supply fears and triggering a sharp sell‑off. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude tumbled on Friday, closing at $66.36 after breaking below a key ascending channel. The market, already jittery from trade tensions and weak data out of China, found fresh reasons to pull back.
Trump’s 50‑day deadline demands that Russia end the war in Ukraine or face new sanctions. At first, the threat lifted oil prices due to supply concerns. But the longer timeline shifted sentiment. Instead of panic buying, traders saw an opportunity for profit‑taking, sending the oil price slipping to $66.36.
“The 50‑day window eased immediate supply concerns,” noted Priyanka Sachdeva, senior analyst at Phillip Nova. Yet Trump’s separate plan to impose 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico imports from August 1 fueled fresh worries about slowing global demand, especially if top Russian crude buyers like China, India, and Turkey step back under U.S. pressure.
Technical outlook stays bearish
Charts confirm the market’s pessimism. After failing to hold $66.95, a mid‑range support, WTI broke below its 50‑period Simple Moving Average (SMA), now sitting at $67.42. This breakdown highlights $65.54 as the next major support. If selling accelerates, prices could test $64.43 and then $63.43. To reverse sentiment, bulls need WTI to reclaim the 50‑SMA and break above $66.95, opening a path back to $68.18–$69.39.
Adding to the bearish tone, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 39.80, well below the neutral 50 level, signaling that sellers firmly control the short‑term trend. “Without bullish divergence or positive surprises, the bias stays negative,” traders say.
Macro headwinds deepen the slide
The oil price slipping to $66.36 also reflects deeper macro weakness. China’s Q2 growth missed expectations, exports are slowing, and consumer sentiment is cooling. “Chinese data is directly impacting commodity sentiment,” said Tony Sycamore at IG, adding that any recent export boost is temporary as traders rush shipments ahead of tariffs.
OPEC remains cautiously upbeat, saying Q3 demand is “very strong.” But many market participants doubt demand can stay firm if trade barriers rise and global growth stalls.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency’s latest report trimmed demand forecasts while boosting supply expectations, hinting the market could swing into surplus sooner than hoped.
Geopolitics keeps markets edgy
Trump’s potential sanctions on Russian oil buyers remain a wild card. ING analysts noted that if the U.S. enforces them fully, “it would change the entire outlook for the oil market.” Until then, traders are waiting for concrete moves rather than headlines.
Russia’s export data shows June oil product shipments fell 3.4% month‑on‑month to 8.98 million metric tons, suggesting a tightening supply. But the real impact depends on how aggressively Washington targets buyers like China and India.
Adding further uncertainty, EU envoys are negotiating an 18th sanctions package that could include a lower Russian oil price cap, while U.S. lawmakers push a bipartisan bill to toughen penalties.
Traders eye the next move
In the near term, the oil price slipping to $66.36 reflects a market caught between bullish supply risks and bearish demand signals. Technical breakdowns reinforce negative momentum, but new sanctions or surprise data could quickly flip sentiment.
For now, $65.54 is the key level to watch. If that breaks, deeper declines could follow. If buyers defend that floor and push WTI back above $66.95, a short‑term rebound toward $68 is possible.
Beyond charts, traders remain wary of broader factors: slowing growth in China, the risk of escalating tariffs from Trump’s policies, and potential disruptions if Russia refuses to bend.
As summer trading volumes thin, headline risk may grow. In commodity markets, news often matters as much as numbers, and right now, headlines remain the biggest driver.
Trump Enacts New Travel Ban on 12 Nations, Sparking Global Backlash
